Northern San Juan
SnowpackJeremy Yanko · Feb 27, 2023 · Northern San Juan
Weather
Partly cloudy with increasing southwest winds
Snowpack
Over the past weekend the warmup with daytime temperatures hovering above freezing and the increasingly overhead sun allowed for a 2" P- hardness melt-freeze crust to form on East to South through West facing aspects up to 11,500ft. This interface should provide resiliency to a deeper failure, keeping storm slab potential as the main threat if snow/water forecast verifies. The new snow came in a bit colder than the last 2 storms so bonding of the N/O should be factored in if we reach high end SWE totals. Other surfaces noted are comprised of wind packed and textured DF's and some near-surface facets, though believe the continuity of the weaker layer is discontinuous across paths of concern that have a northerly-tilt. Wind-loading and directions will be key to the ongoing assessment of increased hazard developing in the Champion group, Brooklyns, Eagle group, Blue Point (of course) West Lime, Slippery Jim and East riverside complex. Recent natural and explosive triggered activity might suggest that the mid to upper snowpack weak layers are stubborn but still on the table for a release with a new load. This problem may may be most intact near and below treeline on northerly facing terrain (Silver Ledge Mine) where near surface facet development was better preserved and developed during mid Feb after some drastic valley inversions and a brief lull in precipitation. A snowpit dug @ 11K on a NE aspect revealed the main PWL of concern down 60cm from the current surface. The right-side up Slab above failed on a mid/hard scores of ECTP 21, CT19RP/CT20RP. This layer might be stubborn at the moment but certainly not dormant.