Aspen
AvalancheDylan Craaybeek · Feb 23, 2025 · Aspen
Weather
Mostly clear with a few clouds observed in the distance. Light westerly breeze with moderate gusts on the Baldy ridgeline. Cool morning quickly warming up by noon.
Snowpack
South-facing slopes now have had two days of melting and refreezing leaving a mix of thin and thick melt-freeze crusts on the snow surface with melt-water runnels starting to develop on lower-elevation south-facing slopes. East and west-facing slopes below treeline also warmed up quite a bit with wet melt-forms making up the top 10-20cm of the snowpack. Moving onto north-facing slopes the warming has not done anything to change the very concerning snowpack structure. There is a 1.5 to 2.5-foot thick, cohesive slab resting on top of a very weak, faceted snowpack with two persistent weak layers of concern that developed during the December drought and then the January drought. There were no signs of instability such as cracking and collapsing in the snow throughout the day and extended column tests are starting to show mixed results with some not failing after 30 taps. However, extended column tests don't quite show the full picture of the snowpack anymore as the slab gains strength and may lead to false stable results. This setup will continue to be a concern for quite some time, although, in wind-sheltered slopes where the slab is only about 50cm thick, extended column tests consistently show propagating failures around 20-25 taps still. Propagation saw tests show a more accurate picture of potential avalanche danger but if you really want the full picture just go look at the avalanche activity from the last week (Excluding the Valentine's Day natural avalanche cycle).
Avalanche
Observed several older avalanches from the Valentine's Day cycle and more recent avalanches that were not documented yet. Willow Creek avalanches here: https://avalanche.state.co.us/report/02cc97a0-4548-4def-b44b-aa218b1fa138