Vail & Summit County
AvalancheAnonymous · Jan 6, 2024 · Vail & Summit County
Weather
The avalanche happened on the morning of january 6. Prior to January 5, there had been very little snowfall for a long time. Then on the night of January 5, 2" of new snow fell. I believe this 2" of new snow is what slid on the Shroud and Three Tiers. CAIC forecasts: The avalanche forecast had been "Low" for a while until January 5. When CAIC posted a forecast on January 4, it predicted "Low" for January 6. But then when the CAIC forecast was updated on January 5, it changed from "Low" to "Moderate" for january 6. It listed wind and persistent slab problems on N/E facing aspects. It did not list any avalanche problems on the S/W aspects which are above the ice climbs.
Snowpack
2" of new snow on top of thin slow from earlier in the season. Upon driving through Tenmile Canyon on the morning of the event, the bowl above The Shroud did not appear to be fully filled in (there were rocks and trees poking through).
Avalanche
At 11am on January 6, 2023, a small avalanche or large sluff ran down the right side of "The Shroud" ice climb in Tenmile Canyon. A contact also reported that Three Tiers avalanched on the same morning. I & many others also climbed Tony's nightmare, but to my knowledge it did not avalanche. I was toproping at the time. the avalanche ran 1' to the right of me. It ran through a section of ice that I had led a couple hours previously. I believe that I would have been able to hold on through the avalanche even if it ran directly over me while I was leading. The debris ended up directly on top of the belay area where we had left some items. Those items were buried in 1' of debris. Some items were carried ~50' down the slope. No one was buried or injured. 5 people were standing a few feet to the right of where the avalanche flowed through the base area. Everyone brought avalanche gear. Shovels & probes were left in protected areas where they would not be buried if an avalanche happened. But if the avalanche had been *much* bigger and had buried people standing at the base, it would be difficult to descend the route and effect a timely rescue. Takeaways for ice climbers: * "The Shroud" should be considered extremely avalanche-prone -- It ran even with a "low-moderate" forecast, safe-appearing conditions, and no CAIC avalanche problems on the relevant aspects. (Three tiers maybe even more so). After this observation, I would choose only to climb in Tenmile Canyon with a low forecast and *no* recent snow. * At least with the way that it formed currently, sluffs will run down the right side of the climb. (You can probably look at the climb and predict where a sluff would run). To reduce avalanche exposure, it's better to lead and set up the belay area on the left side (or whichever side avalanches would *not* run according to how the climb forms).