Northern San Juan

Snowpack

Warm temps over the last few days have resulted in rapid settlement of the snowpack, with Swamp Angel losing over 6" of HS since thursday. Unfortunately, this adds up to a more cohesive storm slab layer rather than a more stable snowpack overall given the persistent weak layers. The general feeling underfoot is much more supportive, but this is a false sense of security given the weak structure below the storm-slab interface. Still experiencing widespread collapsing when traveling over untracked areas, and the overall structure of the snowpack remains weak. Some slopes that slid during last storm are almost undistinguishable from intact ones and have been completely re-loaded, giving the opportunity for "repeat offenders". Much of the dirty depth hoar has a firm M/F crust at the top, which would explain why things aren't flushing out completely when they slide. Slopes that didn't slide have a fat look with big loads merely "clinging" to the landscape. Dug a pit on a W aspect while teaching a Level 1 AIARE Avy class today: several CT's with very easy shears and low scores overall failing at the interface below the Jan. 10-11 1F slab. This snowpack will be slow to stabilize and the probability of human triggered avalanches remains very likely on most aspects and elevations, although the threat of naturals has subsided slightly. It seems that any wind event could push us into another natural cycle quite easily. It would be hasty to reduce the danger from CON at this point given the weak structure overall and the high likelihood of human triggering.