Northern San Juan
AvalancheJeff Davis · Dec 23, 2016 · Northern San Juan
Weather
Beautiful day as skies cleared in the early am. Temperatures were mild with strong solar for the first day of winter. Winds were calm below treeline and no flagging was observed from high mountain peaks.
Snowpack
10-15cms of new snow fell in this area. The amount of accumulated snow was directly related to elevation, the higher we traveled the more snow. Loaded pockets of snow on east-facing slopes near ridgeline. Warming in the new snow was observed around 10:30am. A surface crust has developed on top of the new snow on slopes that are affected by the sun. Multiple crust/facet combinations were found within the snowpack on S and SE facing slopes. Snowpack tests showed hard results in deeper layers, but deep layers could propagate if triggered. With multiple weak-layers in the snowpack and HS being under a meter, it remains possible for you to trigger an avalanche on these type of slopes. We will have to continue to monitor the mid-pack slab to see how it builds during the coming storm. Will it gain strength and basal weak-layers will be to deep to be effected, or will the next storm overload those buried weak-layers and it will become easier to trigger an avalanche? This is what keeps me up at night. This area in Ophir has a very similar snowpack to the Cement Creek drainage near Silverton.
Avalanche
Only a few Loose Dry avalanches were observed in the high alpine on sunny slopes.