Aspen
AvalancheDylan Craaybeek · Feb 7, 2023 · Aspen
Weather
Cold (5F), Clear morning in Ashcroft at 9:30 warming up to 22F by 16:30. Clear all day with increasing winds in the afternoon but only Light gusts from the northwest.
Snowpack
The snowpack is rather complicated in this area with the main takeaway being that there is not significant avalanche danger currently on most slopes but once we get a significant storm the danger will rise quickly and stay elevated for a while. The mid-pack slab (snow from late November through mid-January) lost much of its cohesion and is mostly composed of mixed forms throughout. It is no harder than 1F on the hand hardness scale and mostly variable between 1F- and 4F. The late-January weak interface of near-surface facets buried around Jan. 26-27 easily fails with sudden collapsing results on small column tests but does not propagate on large column tests. These are two persistent weak layers of concern with numerous melt-freeze crust/facet combinations on southerly slopes making it easier to find a persistent weak layer than it is to find a cohesive slab in this area. Although the slab is weak, snowpack tests show stable results, and there has been a lack of avalanche activity the snowpack structure itself is indicative of a dangerous setup and the slab still exists on most slopes above around 11,000 ft. Once we see a significant load avalanches could easily fail on any number of persistent weak layers and gouge through the faceted slab into weak snow at the base creating avalanches that may not break wider than you would expect but could run much farther than you expect.
Avalanche
Only observed old avalanches already coded. No new activity noticed.